Like second marriage, this looks like an example of hope triumphing over experience!
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3 comments:
Well - astonishing. The NHF's timing though seems to gel with RSLs I've been talking to - they feel that the market will bottom out at the end of 2009, but at the moment feel it will not rise for three or four years after that - just remain stable.
Personally I think we're in for quite deep falls next year. As the housing sales season picks up around Easter time the homes that have been kept off or taken off the market this year will come back onto the market and added to them will be those who need to sell for ordinary reasons next year anyway (like moving jobs and so on).
In Oxfordshire they're talking about 150% rises in unemployment (admittedly from a nationally low base) and that can't help confidence.
On the up side, if they do rise over three years, my CLT will be quids in in terms of affordability compared with market prices though. We can just wash our face if the market falls another 25% (Oxfordshire has only fallen 5.8% so far) but if we stay stable or rise we may be able to produce housing at 50% of market levels! Which will make our first development really successful.
If this happoens then personally I am even more worried. Another interest rate fueled boom in property prices will simply prolong the agony resulting in an even more spectacular crash later on down the line and more misery and suffering for millions.
You may not be an economist, but never a truer word was spoken!
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